Monthly Archives: June 2011

Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Across North Central Plains

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Severe Weather Outbreak

(Impacting Much Of The Plains, Especially SD, NE, IA, & MO)

 

A severe weather outbreak is likely Sunday, June 26, 2011. The SPC has placed portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri in a Moderate Risk of severe storms. An extensive Slight Risk is in place from Montana & Wyoming all the way to Georgia & South Carolina. There are several areas of strong storms this morning across the Plains. One area is across the Northern Plains and a second area is across SE Kansas. The most intense storms are across the second area where a couple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued. These storms, along with activity farther north, may persist through midday/early afternoon.

The main event will begin by mid to late afternoon as ongoing convection intensifies and/or more vigorous activity develops. CAPE (instability) will be plentiful across the Plains, which coupled with steep lapse rates and decent shear, results in a very favorable environment for a severe weather outbreak. The most intense storms this afternoon and evening will be across the Moderate Risk area. Baseball-size hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early evening across the Moderate Risk area. I am especially concerned with the tornado threat across Southeast Nebraska later today. Golf ball-size hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes can be expected elsewhere across the Slight Risk area. The severe threat will persist into the overnight hours, so be sure to have your weather radio activated today since severe weather could strike with little or no advance warning. I will be issuing frequent weather updates this afternoon and evening on our Facebook page, so be sure to check frequently.

A few isolated supercells may develop late this afternoon from South Central Kansas to Northwest Texas. This activity will be capable of producing quarter to golf ball-size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. The isolated coverage of severe storms should preclude an upgrade to a Slight Risk.

Cities such as Capser, Rapid City, Aberdeen, Minneapolis, *Sioux Falls, *Sioux City, *Lincoln, *Omaha, Des Moines, *St. Joesph, Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis, Hannibal, Jonesboro, Memphis, Birmingham, and Atlanta could see severe weather today.


* indicates cities within the current Moderate Risk area.

 

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)

Severe Storms To Strike Missouri June 25; Tornadoes Possible

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Severe Storms To Strike Missouri

(Especially Between 4:00 P.M. & 10:00 P.M. CDT)

 

Severe storms will strike the state of Missouri today, June 25, 2011. Portions of Missouri has been affected by severe weather on and off for the last several week, but today’s severe weather event could be the most significant. Right now, a non-severe MCS is moving across the state. This will hinder significant destabilization until after midday. After midday, temps will heat up as a warm front lifts northward through the state. This front will slow/stall by late afternoon and become the focus for severe storm development. SBCAPE will be in excess of 3,000 j/kg in the vicinity of the front, providing ample fuel for storms. A shortwave will move across the region this afternoon which will weaken the cap sufficiently for storms by 4:00 P.M. CDT. Initial activity will be supercellular and will be capable of golf ball-size hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes. Around sunset, storms should begin consolidating into one or more forward-propagating MCS’s, enhancing the potential for widespread wind damage during the mid to late evening hours. Damaging straight-line winds in excess of 75 mph could become a threat this evening across Missouri, if a well-organized MCS develops. These clusters (or MCS’s) will continue into the overnight hours with an associated threat for large hail and damaging winds. The severe threat will decrease after midnight tonight as CIN (convective inhibition) elevates the parcels above the surface. Continue to monitor the latest on today’s severe threat on our Facebook page!

Cities that could be impacted by severe weather include Kansas City, Jefferson City, Hannibal, Springfield, and St. Louis.

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)

Announcement: ConvectiveWeather Linking W/ Cirrus WX

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Special Announcement

ConvectiveWeather Linking With Cirrus WX!

 

I am excited to announce that ConvectiveWeather is linking together with Cirrus WX in order to provide better weather coverage for you! Cirrus WX provides weather information for the state of Kansas and does a really good job covering severe weather outbreaks across that region. While we will be linking together, both sites will continue to operate independently. Linking together will make it easier for you to get reliable weather updates when going on vacation, going to see family for the holidays, etc. This way if a severe weather outbreak is affecting TX, OK, & KS, you can go to Cirrus WX to get the latest updates for KS and stay on ConvectiveWeather for the latest updates on TX & OK. As I stated earlier, I will continue to run things the same as I always have here at ConvectiveWeather. ConvectiveWeather will continue to focus on the South Central U.S. but also post on the surrounding states when significant severe weather is expected to occur.

I would like to take this time to thank all of my followers for their support since I began this site. I enjoy discussing the weather with each one of you.  Thanks for the support, and if you have any suggestions or comments for the site, I would love to hear them! You can send me an e-mail via the “Contact Us” button to the right.

 

-Wesley

Ridge Building Into Region; Watching For Tropical Development

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Ridge Building Into Southern Plains

Watching For Tropical Development In GOM

 

June 24, 2011 – After several days of active, and even some intense, weather across the Southern Plains, calmer weather will return as the ridge builds eastward into the region. As you can see on the above-right image, the ridge will build further into the Plains this afternoon, limiting the best chance of storms to NE Oklahoma, Arkansas, and NE Louisiana. A Slight Risk of severe storms is in place across this region this afternoon and evening. This will be the last notable threat for severe storms across the Southern Plains states (TX, OK, AR, & LA) for several days. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe storms later today. While highs have been tolerable for cities such as Oklahoma City and Dallas-Ft. Worth, this will change beginning today as highs soar to near 100*F this afternoon. This above-normal heat will continue into the middle of next week, slowly pushing eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana by the early next week. A hot, dry weather pattern is beginning to take hold and will likely hold through the middle of next week for most of the region.

One thing we will have to watch for over the next several days is potential tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, widespread convection is being generated near a stalled boundary stretching from northeast to southwest. The models don’t develop anything from this convection, but there is an area to the south and east of Brownsville, TX that I will be watching over the next 24-48 hours for any signs of development. (Convection is pretty widespread across this region and lies in an area of lower shear.) All models agree on possible tropical development next week in the southern/southwest GOM. With the ridge expected to be in place, any impacts from a tropical system would likely be south of Texas. As with anything that could develop in the gulf, it will be something to keep an eye on.

Follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook for the latest weather updates!

 

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)

Severe Storms Possible From S Kansas/N Oklahoma Through AR

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Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon – Overnight

(KS, OK, MO, & AR)

 

June 23, 2011 – Severe storms will be possible from late afternoon through the overnight hours across Southern Kansas…Northern Oklahoma…Southwest Missouri…and much of Arkansas. The models aren’t as aggressive with storm development as they were 24 hours ago, but they still indicate development along a retreating front near the KS/OK border by 6:00 P.M. CDT. These storms will likely become strong to severe as they shift toward the east and southeast during the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with this activity. As these storms mature, they may form an organized, but small MCS (meso-convective system) as they move into NE Oklahoma…Southwest Missouri…and Northwest Arkansas by midnight. If this does indeed occur, a threat for quarter-size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will persist into the early morning hours Friday. The tornado threat will be low this evening, due to less-than-favorable instability, despite favorable helicity values in place.

Cities that could be impacted by severe weather this evening and overnight include Wichita, Ponca City, Tulsa, Joplin, Fayetteville, Fort Smith, and Little Rock.

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SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)