Tropical Storm Adrian Develops This Evening

(Cat. 1 Hurricane Likely By Late Wednesday Afternoon)

June 8, 2011 – Tropical Storm Adrian develops in Eastern Atlantic Tuesday evening. Tropical Storm Adrian is the first Tropical Storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific. This system is winding up as it drifts toward the north and west. Wind shear across the region is very low, and sea temps are very warm, making rapid intensification of this system possible over the next 24 hours or so. The National Hurricane Center originally forecast what was then TD One-E to become a Hurricane early Friday morning. With the next update, they sped up the intensification, forecasting that this tropical system would become a Hurricane Thursday. Tonight’s forecast from the NHC indicates that Tropical Storm Adrian will likely reach hurricane status late tomorrow afternoon. Given the environment and recent observations, this is a likely scenario. The only factor that could limit rapid intensification of this system within the next 24-48 hours is some dry air to the northwest. This will likely be a non-factor in the short-term, so rapid intensification of this system remains a distinct possibility. TS Adrian will pick up speed late Thursday as he begins to head in a more westerly direction. This system’s intensity will likely peak late Friday before heading into cooler waters this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has Adrian peaking as a Category 2 Hurricane Friday afternoon. A Category 3 hurricane cannot be completely ruled out, if this system were to undergo a period of rapid organization, as previously discussed. The good news is that all major impacts will remain off the coast of Mexico through the entire forecast period.