Wet Period For Texas

January 24-26, 2012

After a prolonged period of rain-free weather across much of the Lone Star State, Texas will see a return to wetter conditions. Our upper-level system responsible for the upcoming rain is currently moving into California. The models have been bouncing all over the place over the last several days in regards to the timing and track of this system. Fortunately, they appear to be converging on a track into Southwest New Mexico/far West Texas by tomorrow evening. Once the system makes it into West Texas, it will slowly wind up, eventually becoming an upper-level low. As it strengthens, its eastern progression will slow. By Wednesday evening, it will have only made it into Southwest Texas, near Ozona.

At the surface, yesterday’s cold front will lift back north, retreating as far north as a Huntsville, to Temple, to San Angelo line by tomorrow evening. Dew points north of this boundary will be in the 40*F’s to low-50*F’s, while areas to the south will be in the mid-50*F’s to mid-60*F’s. While rain is likely across much of Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible along and south of the warm front tomorrow evening and overnight. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and coin-size hail are the forecast threats. This does not look to be a repeat of yesterday’s outbreak, but be sure to keep an eye on the weather late tomorrow and overnight. Cities that could be impacted by severe weather tomorrow evening and overnight include, but are not limited to, San Angelo, Austin, San Antonio, and Waco.

A squall line or cluster of storms may form along the front early Wednesday as it becomes oriented more SW to NE. To the east of I-35, the warm front may make it as far north as I-20 by midday Wednesday. This would also bring the threat for severe storms near the eastern Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex on Wednesday. Time will tell just how far north this front will retreat. For now, the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex should anticipate mainly rain with a few stronger storms Tuesday night and Wednesday; however, the severe threat will continue to be monitored. Take a look at some of the forecast rainfall amounts by early Thursday evening. Some areas in North Central and Northeast Texas may reach 3 or 4 inches. This is certainly welcome, given the ongoing drought conditions!

3-Day Rainfall Amounts (January 24-26, 2012)

Central Texas Severe Threat Tuesday Evening Thru Wednesday (January 24-25, 2012)