Watching Dryline

For Isolated Severe Storms

After a pretty active evening yesterday, things will be calmer over the next several days. Although it will be calmer, we will have a daily threat for isolated severe storms coming off a dryline in West Texas and the Panhandles. A stout cap will keep coverage low, generally between 10 and 20%, but anything that does manage to break through the cap will become strong. Large hail to the size of golf balls or tennis balls will be possible, in addition to damaging winds. An isolated Tornado is also possible with any well-organized supercell; however, it will not be like what we saw in Northern Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday. The time to watch for storm initiation will be between 4:00 and 8:00 PM CDT. Storms that develop should diminish by late evening or midnight as the cap strengthens with the loss of daytime heating.

SPC Day 1 Outlook Valid May 1, 2012

SPC Day 2 Outlook Valid May 2, 2012

SPC Day 3 Outlook Valid May 3, 2012

Looking ahead into the long-range, the pattern looks to become more active as we get into the second week of May. Some of the models, including the GFS and Euro, suggest that an upper-level low could impact parts of the region as early as the middle of next week. I have also taken a look at a few models and charts, and I believe that the MJO will become more active by mid-May. When the MJO becomes more active in the Pacific, it increases the odds of rainfall across our region. This also fits well with the LRC cycle. In fact, the developer of the LRC, meteorologist Gary Lezak, believes that a wetter May and June is on tap for the Central US. You can view his latest article (issued this afternoon) by clicking here.

I’ll continue to keep everyone posted on the weather, updating and tweaking the forecast as needed. Take care and enjoy the calmer weather!