11:30 AM CDT Sunday, May 20, 2012
We have scattered showers and storms across Central and Southern Oklahoma right now with partly sunny skies just to the south. Yesterday’s cold front is located near a Seminole, TX; to Duncan, OK; to Ft. Smith, AR line. The central and eastern portions of the boundary will continue to sink southward, reaching the Red River by sunset. Isolated to widely scattered storms can be expected today near and north of the front. This should keep the majority of convection north of the Red River; however, the northernmost tier or two of counties in North Texas will see a 20% chance later today as the front gets closer.
11:02 AM CDT Visible Satellite Image
The severe threat is lower today than it was yesterday. Yesterday ended up being quite busy with numerous severe weather reports, especially across Kansas. A few wind and hail reports can be expected today but nothing widespread or significant. Less-than-favorable shear and the lack of an upper-level disturbance should keep storms disorganized, despite favorable instability and lapse rates. Thus, today’s threats will be locally heavy rain, lightning, coin-size hail, and gusty/damaging winds.
SPC Day 1 Hail Probabilities
SPC Day 1 Wind Probabilities
Tomorrow, storm chances spread into North Texas as the front sinks south of the Red River. The Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex will see about a 20% chance of storms tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. The overall setup will be similar to today’s – marginal shear and upper-level support with decent instability and lapse rates. With this in mind, a couple severe storms will be possible, but the threat will remain low.