Forecast Discussion
9:00 AM CDT Wednesday, May 30, 2012
An interesting and complex situation has developed across the Southern Plains this morning. The Oklahoma storms and their associated outflow boundary made it much farther south into Texas than expected. The boundary has pushed to near a Snyder to Austin line. The models right now appear to be playing catch up which makes the forecast a bit difficult. This boundary has the potential to be a player in today’s Severe Weather; however, the SPC noted that the boundary appears quite shallow across Northwest/West Central Texas. This suggests that the boundary may not be much of a factor in today’s setup.
8:00 AM CDT Surface Winds
If it were a bit deeper, then it would become a player as it lifts northward with daytime heating. The National Weather Service in Ft. Worth posted the following Graphicast earlier this morning. As you can see, it would increase the Tornado threat due to the increase in low-level shear. Thus, it and other outflow boundaries will continue to be monitored today.
NWS in Ft. Worth Early AM Graphicast
As a shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the Panhandles late this afternoon, some large-scale forcing will overspread the area, resulting in scattered storm development. This development will occur off at least two boundaries – the dryline across Western OK and Northwest TX and the stationary front in Northern OK. On the map below, you can see that the SPC has placed portions of Western and Central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of far Northwest Texas under a Moderate Risk. This is where the most significant Severe Weather is likely to occur. Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and isolated Tornadoes are all possible later today and into tonight. The Large Hail and Tornado threat will be most pronounced during the first few hours after initiation before storms begin to merge by mid-evening. Cities at risk today and/or tonight include the following: Woodward, Lawton, Oklahoma City, Ponca City, Tulsa, Ada, Ardmore, Wichita Falls, Ft. Worth, and Dallas.
1300z SPC Day 1 Outlook – May 30, 2012
A life-threatening situation may develop late this afternoon and evening. I urge everyone (especially those in the Moderate Risk) to have a way to get weather alerts today and tonight. Severe Weather can strike with little or no advance warning. You can follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook and Twitter to get the latest updates!
