Thru The Afternoon For Parts Of Texas
This morning, fortunately stayed dry for sunrise services across the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for areas in the Red River Valley who are still seeing some showers and storms this morning. This activity is non-severe but is capable of heavy rain, lightning, and perhaps some small hail. Additional activity is expected to develop farther south across Dallas and Ft. Worth toward midday and, especially, this afternoon. Some of this activity may briefly become strong to severe after 2:00 PM CDT. Storm motion will continue to be fairly slow and toward the south and east. Although instability and moisture will be sufficient for organized storms, shear will be marginal for severe weather which will prove to be limiting factor. Thus, multicell storms are expected, rather than supercells later this afternoon. Quarter-size hail and gusty/damaging winds are the primary hazards from the strongest cells today. Widespread severe weather is very unlikely.
North Texas Weather – Easter 2012
A better chance of severe weather looks to develop across the Southern Plains tomorrow afternoon and evening. I’ll have more on this potential later this afternoon, after I have has time to analyze morning model data. Take care and have a great Easter!
Storm Chances (April 7-8, 2012)
After a couple days of fairly dry weather, storm chances will be on the increase. Today, a few storms may fire off a dryline across the Southern High Plains, but coverage is likely to not exceed 20%. With moderate amounts of instability, any storms that do develop will be capable of some coin-size hail and strong/damaging wind gusts. There does seem to be some consensus with a few models that some storms will fire across Kansas this evening and track southeast overnight into tomorrow morning. This activity may clip Northern and Northeast Oklahoma, if it develops and organizes overnight. This will be something to keep an eye on.
West Texas Weather Today, April 6, 2012
Tomorrow, storm chances will be higher as a cold front sinks south into Northwest Texas and Oklahoma. Like this afternoon, there will be a decent amount of instability. Moisture quality is expected to be better, so a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the strongest cells. I am not currently anticipating much in the way of tornadic activity since low-levels winds/shear are not expected to be very favorable for spin-ups. The severe threat will wane during the mid to late evening hours.
NW TX & OK Weather Tomorrow, April 7, 2012
For Easter services, a few showers and storms can be expected on both sides of the front Sunday morning, but severe weather is unlikely. Temps will be mild, so the weather will be good temperature-wise for most folks in Texas and Oklahoma. (We’ve certainly seen much colder Easters before!) Thunderstorm activity will pick up during the afternoon hours in the vicinity of the front. A severe storm or two will be possible, but this will NOT be anything significant.
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SPC Day 2 Outlook Valid April 7, 2012