Forecast Discussion

9:00 AM CDT Memorial Day, May 28, 2012

A few Severe Storms are in the forecast for this Memorial Day. The SPC has a Slight Risk highlighted from West Central Texas into South Central Oklahoma. This is the area where storms will initiate near the stalling cold front late this afternoon and evening. Cities such as San Angelo, Abilene, Mineral Wells, Wichita Falls, Norman, and Ardmore may be under the gun later today. Even areas as far east as Dallas and Ft. Worth will have a chance of storms by this evening.

1300z SPC Day 1 Outlook Valid May 28, 2012

Instability will be more than sufficient to support Severe Thunderstorms today. This, coupled with steepening lapse rates, sufficient shear, and deep moisture, will prove favorable for Severe Weather. The only limiting factor is the lack of stronger low-level winds. This deficiency will serve to limit the Tornado threat. Unfortunately, this may not be the case come Tuesday and Wednesday. (I’ll have more on this later.) The main window for Severe Weather today appears to be from 5:00 to 10:00 PM CDT. Lunch activities will be fine, but come late this afternoon and evening, you will need to keep an eye on the weather. Storms will likely put a hamper on outdoor dinner plans for some.

North Texas Weather – Memorial Day 2012

Overall, this won’t be the worst Memorial Day because we’ve certainly have had worse. As stated above, the threat for Severe Weather, including isolated Tornadoes, will continue into the middle of the week. The threat area will shift around from day to day, so stay tuned to the latest!

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