Tag Archives: Mississippi Valley

Tornado Outbreak Likely Across Northeast Texas & Arkansas

A tornado outbreak is likely across Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and adjacent portions of the Arkansas/Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi borders. A couple strong tornadoes are certainly possible (if not likely) across this region late this afternoon and evening. Currently, strong to marginally severe storms are progressing through this region in the vicinity of the stalled front and several outflow boundaries. This convection will be capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds through midday. (The main event will begin farther west of ongoing storms.) A potent shortwave will dig into West Texas this afternoon providing ample forcing for storm development on an the advancing dryline. By 1:00 P.M. CDT, the dryline should be near Abilene, TX with the stalled front stretching from W-SW to E-NE to the north. Storm initiation is possible in the early afternoon hours, prior to nearing the I-35 corridor. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline by 3:00 P.M. CDT as the boundary sets near Eastland, TX (roughly 75 miles west of the I-35 corridor). This activity will intensify as it reaches the I-35 corridor. Severe weather is likely shortly after storm initiation. The environment will be very unstable and quite favorable for tornado development. Expect several severe supercells to move through the DFW metro between 3:00 P.M. and 6:00 P.M. CDT. The threat for strong tornadoes will reside in Northeast Texas and Arkansas later in the afternoon and especially during the evening, but the DFW area will likely see the beginning stages of the severe weather outbreak. This activity will also impact Southern/Southeast Oklahoma.

The main event will occur after 6:00 P.M. CD as the low-level jet strengthens from the Arklatex and points to the north and east. The cities of Shreveport, Texarkana, Ft. Smith, Little Rock, El Dorado, and Jonesboro are all at risk for severe weather, some of which may be significant. Keep a close eye on the latest watches and warnings later today, and be prepared, should a Tornado Warning be issued for your area. Follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook for the latest weather updates! I’ll be issuing several updates later this afternoon and evening regarding the severe weather. -Stay Tuned!

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)

Severe Storms Today From Texas Through Ohio

A round of severe storms will occur later today from Texas through Ohio as a cold front and dryline progress through the Central United States. Due to a faster cold front and dryline progression, there has been a decent shift of the severe probabilities toward the southeast. A potent shortwave forecast to move into the Northern Plains this afternoon will provide upper-level support for storms – something that was lacking in yesterday’s setup. The first severe storms will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by early to mid afternoon along a warm front. Very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are likely across parts of this region this afternoon and evening. Storms will eventually form linear-type segments by evening as they move off toward the north and east. Farther southwest, the threat for severe weather will be more conditional/isolated, especially across North Central and Central Texas. Scattered severe storms will likely develop into Eastern Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as the cap weakens. Similar to areas farther north and east, Eastern Oklahoma will see the threat for large hail (some of which could be very large), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes with any storm that develops. The threat from roughly Wichita Falls to San Angelo will be conditional and dependent on the cap strength. This region will be the least affected by the shortwave in the Northern Plains, so it is uncertain whether or not daytime heating alone will be enough to weaken the cap for storm development. High to even extreme instability will be present by late afternoon with SBCAPE in excess of 4,000 j/kg. Needless to say, the atmosphere will very unstable. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out with any discrete supercell that develops later today. Today’s threat for this region will be similar to yesterday’s severe weather.

Major cities that could be impacted today include Indianapolis, IN; Louisville, KY; Springfield, MO; Fayetteville, AR; Wichita Falls, TX; and Abilene, TX.

Follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook for the latest weather updates!

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)

Severe Weather Possible Along Stalled Front Across Gulf Coast States

There is a chance for a few severe storms today along a cold front that stretches from West Central Texas, through Northeast Texas and Northern Mississippi. This boundary will move very little this afternoon and evening. Along and south of the boundary, moderate instability is already in place. Morning convection across Mississippi and Alabama will continue moving toward the south and east, steadily intensifying through the afternoon hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats; however, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out later today. Farther west, cloudy but dry conditions are present. This will change once daytime heating commences later this afternoon. Showers and storms could begin developing around midday across Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, but the severe weather threat will hold off until later. By 3:00 P.M. CDT, the cap across the region should begin eroding. This is when strong to severe storms will become increasingly likely. An organized cluster or two of severe storms is possible along/south of the boundary by late afternoon or early evening. Similar to areas farther east, quarter-size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be the main threats. An isolated tornado is possible but not likely. Steeper lapse rates across portions of West Central/Central Texas could yield a few hailstones in excess of 2 inches (larger than golf ball-size) late this afternoon and evening. The severe threat will decrease across the entire region after sunset (8:00 P.M. CDT). A threat for small to marginally severe hail will continue overnight across the region, even extending into Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens overnight.

More chances for severe weather will be present tomorrow through the early next week. Friday will be the day to watch for a regional severe weather outbreak across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. I’ll have more on the extended forecast this afternoon or evening. Follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook for the latest weather updates!

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC Issuance)

10:30 P.M. CDT Weather Update: Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing

10:30 P.M. CDT Weather Update: I just wanted to issue a brief update on this evening’s severe weather outbreak. (I have been busy issuing severe weather updates on the ConvectiveWeather Facebook page since late afternoon.) The first activity to fire off this afternoon was across Missouri, Oklahoma, and North Texas. Many of these cells became severe and even tornadic. One supercell, in particular, was quite impressive. It developed along the cold front in Southern Oklahoma (near Ardmore, OK) this afternoon and tracked through Atoka, OK and eventually into Mena, AR this evening. The cell produced at least one tornado in SE Oklahoma earlier with many reports of large, damaging hail in excess of 2 inches. Since then, more activity has developed along and ahead of the cold front from the Ark-La-Tex through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Currently, severe storms are tracking through the state of Arkansas where numerous severe weather warnings have been issued over the last several hours. Severe weather reports have exceeded 400, as of 10:30 P.M. CDT. Many more are likely through midnight.

Looking ahead, there will be several more opportunities for severe weather through early next week. The most significant of these opportunities looks to be Sunday or Monday when a large western trough lifts into the Plains states. I’ll have more on this tomorrow. -Good night and stay safe!

SPC Severe Weather Reports

Severe Weather Outbreak This Afternoon & Evening

A severe weather outbreak will occur from Eastern Oklahoma through Central Ohio late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes likely with at least a few storms later today. A couple strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in the Moderate Risk area. This morning, there is a surface low near the KS/OK border with a dryline trailing southwest and a stalled front draped from Eastern Kansas through West Virginia. Currently, there are ongoing strong to marginally severe storms across the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest. This activity will continue eastward this morning but should weaken by midday. By early afternoon, the low will shift eastward as a shortwave lifts into the Plains. The western portion of the stalled front will begin moving southeast across Oklahoma. By this time, the dryline will have mixed east and will lie to the west of I-35 in North Texas. Very strong surface heating will occur ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline today. Many areas in Northwest, West Central, and West Texas will hit the century mark this afternoon. This intense heating will help weaken the cap by late afternoon (4:00 P.M. CST). The first severe storms look to fire from NE Oklahoma through Missouri by mid to late afternoon. Supercells capable of softball-size hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes are likely across the region. This activity will spread eastward into the Midwest through the evening hours. A strong tornado or two is probable (>40%) with this activity, so be sure to keep a close eye on the weather. Farther southwest, the cap will be stronger than across NE Oklahoma and the Ozarks. Daytime heating will weaken the cap across SE OK/NE TX late this afternoon; but, convection may not be able to develop until the cold front overtakes the dryline in the early evening hours. After 6:00 P.M. CDT, there will be a 20% to 30% chance of severe storms east of I-35. Instability will be very high east of I-35 with SBCAPE in excess of 3,000 j/kg. (This means very large hail is a possibility, along with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.) Afternoon and early evening convection will form linear segments after 10:00 P.M. CST as it pushes eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The transition from supercells to a squall line or two will enhance the damaging straight-line wind threat across the Moderate Risk area. Severe convection will slowly weaken after midnight tonight. I’ll be issuing severe weather updates on Facebook beginning at 3:00 P.M. CDT or so.

Major cities to be impacted include, but are not limited to, the following: Ft. Smith, AR; Little Rock, AR; Springfield, MO; St. Louis, MO; Memphis, TN; Springfield, IL; Louisville, KY; Indianapolis, IN; and Dayton, OH. Other cities that could be impacted include: Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX; Tulsa, OK; Shreveport, LA; Joplin, MO; Greenville, MS; Peoria, IL;, Lansing, MI; and Cleveland, OH.

SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC Issuance)

Surface Analysis @ 8:30 A.M. CDT

Surface Forecast @ 1:00 P.M. CDT

Surface Forecast @ 7:00 P.M. CDT