A tornado outbreak is likely across Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and adjacent portions of the Arkansas/Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi borders. A couple strong tornadoes are certainly possible (if not likely) across this region late this afternoon and evening. Currently, strong to marginally severe storms are progressing through this region in the vicinity of the stalled front and several outflow boundaries. This convection will be capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds through midday. (The main event will begin farther west of ongoing storms.) A potent shortwave will dig into West Texas this afternoon providing ample forcing for storm development on an the advancing dryline. By 1:00 P.M. CDT, the dryline should be near Abilene, TX with the stalled front stretching from W-SW to E-NE to the north. Storm initiation is possible in the early afternoon hours, prior to nearing the I-35 corridor. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline by 3:00 P.M. CDT as the boundary sets near Eastland, TX (roughly 75 miles west of the I-35 corridor). This activity will intensify as it reaches the I-35 corridor. Severe weather is likely shortly after storm initiation. The environment will be very unstable and quite favorable for tornado development. Expect several severe supercells to move through the DFW metro between 3:00 P.M. and 6:00 P.M. CDT. The threat for strong tornadoes will reside in Northeast Texas and Arkansas later in the afternoon and especially during the evening, but the DFW area will likely see the beginning stages of the severe weather outbreak. This activity will also impact Southern/Southeast Oklahoma.
The main event will occur after 6:00 P.M. CD as the low-level jet strengthens from the Arklatex and points to the north and east. The cities of Shreveport, Texarkana, Ft. Smith, Little Rock, El Dorado, and Jonesboro are all at risk for severe weather, some of which may be significant. Keep a close eye on the latest watches and warnings later today, and be prepared, should a Tornado Warning be issued for your area. Follow ConvectiveWeather on Facebook for the latest weather updates! I’ll be issuing several updates later this afternoon and evening regarding the severe weather. -Stay Tuned!
SPC Day 1 Outlook (1300 UTC)