November 23, 2013 | 7:30 AM CST - Winter is wasting no time returning to the Southern Plains. The Arctic Front barreled through the region a couple days ago, and now the stage is set for a Major Winter Storm. Many, many counties are under some type of Winter Watch, Advisory, or Warning.
Latest NWS Watch/Advisory Map
Beginning this evening and overnight, an area of precipitation will develop near the New Mexico-Texas border. (See the graphics below for what is forecast by midnight.) The northern part of this band will fall as mainly Snow, then transitioning to Sleet, Freezing Rain, and eventually Rain across South Central Texas. It will spread eastward into Oklahoma and North Central Texas during the day on Sunday. This is Round 1.
06z NAM MSLP/ 2 M Temp/Precip
06z GFS MSLP/ 2 M Temp/Precip
Round 2 comes Sunday evening and overnight as the low moves near the area. Moisture will ride atop the cold air with increasing precipitation from SW to NE through Monday. This is when the state will really have to watch for Significant Accumulations. The temperature spread among the models is within 2-4*F for most locations Sunday night and Monday, but when it comes to Wintry Weather, it makes all the difference.
The way it looks now, there will be a corridor of moderate to heavy Ice as a result of Freezing Rain. Right now, this looks to set up from West Central Texas into Northeast/East Central Texas. Just to the north, anywhere from .5″ to 1.5″ of Sleet is likely with some Snow accumulations even farther north.
NWS/WPC 6 AM Sun- 6 AM Mon Ice Probs
One of the models that forecasters and Meteorologists use is the NAM. The Hi-Res NAM has been consistent in dumping several inches of snow across North Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Yesterday evening’s run had a 21 INCH BULL’S EYE to the southwest of the DFW metroplex. The recent run has backed off but still shows widespread amounts of 4-12 inches across the region. Believe it or not, this is technically possible IF the precipitation were to fall as mainly Snow. The difference – just a couple degrees. ConvectiveWeather will be on “Storm Watch” into next week, so check the Facebook page frequently for the latest. I also recommend reading the NWS Forecast Discussions via their website.
November 22, 2013 | 8:20 AM CST - A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the NW half of North Central Texas from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Most models are in agreement on at least minor accumulations of Sleet and Ice in and around the watch area. Depending on temperatures and the track of the upper low, Significant Accumulations may occur across parts of North Texas. This is why the Winter Storm Watch has been posted. Whether it’s mainly Sleet or Freezing Rain, time will tell; but, travel WILL become hazardous Sunday into Monday. Be prepared for possible power outages.
Winter Storm Watch – NWS Ft. Worth
Here’s an excerpt from this morning’s discussion from the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth. I have highlighted the important parts for quick reading…
“BY LATE SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA WILL EJECT EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IT GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING ON SUNDAY BECAUSE THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. AS IT BEINGS TO PRECIPITATE INTO THIS LAYER…IT SHOULD COOL TO WELL BELOW FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SLEET STORM BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A PERSISTENT WARM NOSE IN THE 700 TO 800MB LAYER…ALTHOUGH IT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SLEET WITH SOME MELTING IN THIS LAYER…THEN REFREEZING BELOW IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO…ALTHOUGH IT HAS SUPPORT FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. BOTH THE 21/21Z AND 22/03Z SREF GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD SLEET BEGINNING SUNDAY OUT WEST AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN MANY AREAS AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES…INCLUDING THE METROPLEX FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IF THE WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE MORE STOUT…WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND ICE SCENARIO. EITHER WAY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE HIGH. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW SLEET TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850MB WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.”
7:15 AM Water Vapor Imagery – NOAA
November 21, 2013 | 2:45 PM CST - Storm Spotters reported a Tornado near Groesbeck, TX earlier this afternoon. The NWS in Ft. Worth issued a Tornado Warning for Limestone County at 1:25 PM and canceled the warning at 1:40 PM. Thank goodness for Storm Spotters because, on radar, the cell showed little in the way of rotation.
Limestone County Tornado Warning – IEM
For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, showers and storms will continue to increase along and ahead of the cold front. The SPC kept low Severe Probabilities for Large Hail and Damaging Winds across North Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma for their 2 PM update. Interestingly enough, they did not add any low Tornado Probabilities. As mentioned on Facebook yesterday and this morning, a brief Tornado cannot be ruled out given some backing of the low-level winds. Otherwise, Quarter to Half Dollar-size Hail and Damaging Winds of 60-65 MPH will be the main threats.-Stay Tuned!
2:30 PM CST Visible Satellite – NWS/SPC
*More Info On The Tornado Warning From The Iowa Environmental Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2013-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-W-0034/USCOMP-N0Q-201311211925
November 19, 2013 | 5:00 PM CST - As if things weren’t already bad enough, a strong Arctic Cold Front will blast through the Tornado-ravaged Midwest. The models are showing highs in the 40*F’s with lows in the 30*F’s on Friday across this area. The weekend will be even colder with a chance of Wintry Weather for parts of the region.
For our neck of the woods, the cold front will enter the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and push through much of Oklahoma and Northwest Texas by daybreak Friday. The front should be draped from Northern Louisiana to South Texas by sunset.
Forecast Temps 6 AM Friday – NWS
Forecast Temps 6 PM Friday – NWS
As far as rain/storm chances go, the threat for organized Severe Weather looks low. The models show an unstable warm sector Thursday afternoon and evening, but many models generate little in advance of the front. This is likely due to some subsidence behind a morning disturbance. Any storms that develop later in the day will pose a threat for some Gusty/Damaging Winds and Coin-size Hail, given 30-40 kts of Shear.
18z Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar Valid 6 PM Friday
In the cold sector, there will likely be some Wintry Weather. The extent of this Wintry Weather is dependent on the depth of the cold air and how close an upper-level low is situated. With the shallow cold air mass, I am a bit concerned with Freezing Rain/Ice. These threats will continue to be monitored and refined in the coming days. -Stay Tuned!
Weather Scenarios – NWS Ft. Worth
November 11, 2013 | 3:15 PM CST - The much-discussed Arctic chill is on the way. The cold front currently lies from Southwest Kansas into North Central Missouri. It will push into far northern portions of Texas and Oklahoma by early evening. Come daybreak Tuesday, it will be well into Texas. Expect gusty north winds and much colder temperatures behind the front.
3:00 PM Regional Temps – Monday, November 11th
Here’s a look at the temperature trend over the next couple of days. Tuesday night will be the coldest night with a Hard Freeze expected for much of the region. Even the urban areas of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex will drop to/below 32*F by daybreak.
Forecast Temps Valid 6 AM Tuesday
Forecast Temps Valid 3 PM Tuesday
Forecast Temps Valid 6 AM Wednesday
Forecast Temps Valid 3 PM Wednesday
Forecast Temps Valid 6 AM Thursday